Seeing Is Believing: Red Bryant
I'm having all 4 wisdom teeth extracted tomorrow and won't be able to post for a couple days. While I'm recovering, I thought I'd share a link to archived footage of Texas A&M football. Bryant is #85, but because of the poor camera angle, the fact that he shifts around a bit, and that he played beside #95, Henry Smith, he can be a bit tough to track. Despite what you may have read elsewhere, Smith was A&M's primary nose tackle. Funny how when a player is very large, it's assumed he's a wide-bodied blocker stopper, but though Bryant certainly is strong enough to play the two gap, his quickness and agility promise great one-gap potential. See for yourself.
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Lofa Tatupu
I had my first drink, my first drunk, when I was 11. Maybe 12. My group of friends met with our female counterparts at one’s house less than a block from my own. I had never set a foot in the door nor known she lived there, being that it’s a small world/it’s a very large world, nearly all I’ll never see. We sat in the basement, shot the shit, unmolested by parents, each a different degree of latchkey kid.
Her high school aged sister had held a party two days prior. Tucked in the nook of a cluttered anteroom facing the backyard sat the pitiable remains of a keg. Warm, tapped, skunked and mostly foam. I won’t bore with the build up, but I volunteered – boastful, among the boys, in front of the girls, and ever stupid risk taking – to drink those dregs. It was enough for three of us to get lit and we tripped down to the volleyball game.
Despite my young start, I never embraced drink like many I knew. They carrying concealed flasks to first period, shorting their parents liquor supply; the such, but it’s been a part of my life now and again. 15, riding the bus with Berent to where the Mill Plain Wal-Mart now stands, paying Jim the Bum with change from my father’s dresser, drinking malt liquor in that rat wilderness of African Ivy, knee-high grass, bottles and strangled trees; known as Gizzard Boy for my willingness to mercy kill others’ wounded soldiers. Short of “Mr.” or “Captain”, that’s as close as I’ve ever come to a nickname.
It’s a fucked up childhood, but it’s my own. I never had a role model who drank. I didn’t drink to be cool or adult or for any reason more explainable or clear than any other hoodlum thing I did. It was there, I was there, it was something to do. But I’ve never driven while drunk or even buzzed.
Every other person I’ve ever known, excepting my wife, has. In high school and, well, post-high school it wasn’t just okay, it was a point of pride. Like an accomplishment or initiation. Like “man that was stupid, but…” or “a cop tailed me from the Blind Onion to Chkalov,” or “My parents would have killed me, so...” Like, we’ve all done it so don’t act so goddamn holier than thou. I’ve lost a few friends acting so goddamn holier than thou.
My life, my life to this point, has been wracked with faults and sin, but I will never hesitate to condemn the act of drinking and driving.
When it was reported that Lofa Tatupu was arrested for DUI, it was a gutshot. Embarrassing and hypocritical, sort of. I’ve done my damndest to stay aloof when it comes to the lives of professional athletes. Yeah, aloof, with all its negative connotations. I don’t know Tatupu, or Marvin Harrison, or Michael Vick and am careful not to confuse media savvy with character. Issuing a timely public apology tells me much about Tatupu’s, Tatupu’s agent’s and the Seahawks’ media savvy, but excuse me if I find it hard to find the man through the media.
Maybe one day I’ll meet Tatupu, we can share a beer, probably not of course, but a man can dream. Either way, I doubt I’ll ever know Lofa Tatupu. But when you’re a star, and kids idolize you, and in your bigness you have a disproportionate impact on our culture and our mores, you matter beyond the gridiron. In my life, I haven’t avoided drinking and driving because I’m a good man or I so respected DARE officer Bill, but because, brass tacks, drinking and driving has caused more suffering, injury and death than every serial killer who ever lived – times a thousand. No one cares when I say it, but maybe they will if you do.
Lofa Tatupu and the Seahawks organization can either distance themselves from this, take their lumps, whatever trifling lumps they be, or seize this moment to do something good. Spare me your contrition. Become a better man. Become a voice against drinking and driving. Talk to kids. You’re way cooler than you think. Bring the knowledge, the facts and sure it’ll be lost on most, but someone will listen, someone will care, and that person’s life or another’s may be saved. As is, Tatupu, you stand as just another example that it's not so bad to drink and drive, everyone does it, and if you're caught, no big deal. And that's deadly.
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Projected Standings: NFC West 2008
Seattle Seahawks 13-32007 DVOA: 11.7% |
Passing Offense: 17.2%+Replaced Shaun Alexander with Julius JonesReplaced Marcus Pollard with John CarlsonReplaced Chris Gray with Rob Sims-Lost DJ HackettDeion Branch recovering from ACL tear |
Rushing Offense: -9.9%+Replaced Shaun Alexander with Julius JonesReplaced Rob Sims with Mike WahleReplaced Chris Gray with Rob SimsReplaced Marcus Pollard with John Carlson-n/a |
Pass Defense: -0.2%+Added Lawrence JacksonAdded Red BryantMoved Darryl Tapp to situational dutyYear 3: Kelly JenningsDarryl Tapp: 24Hill’s late season development in coverage-Patrick Kerney: 31Rocky Bernard: 29 |
Rush Defense: -12.1%+Added Lawrence JacksonAdded Red BryantMoved Darryl Tapp to situational dutyMebane: 23Hill: 26-n/a |
+Replaced Josh Brown with Olindo Mare on kickoffsReplaced Boone Stutz (et al) with Tyler Schmitt-Replaced Josh Brown with Olindo Mare on field goals (maybe) |
Summary: Anything short of 6-0 in division would be very disappointing. |
Arizona Cardinals 9-72007 DVOA: -10.1% |
Passing Offense: 6.6%+Replaced Kurt Warner with Matt Leinart (maybe)Added WR Early Doucet-Lost WR Bryant Johnson |
Rushing Offense:-11.3%+Added RB Tim Hightower-Edgerrin James: 30; 2,849 rushing attempts |
Pass Defense: 10.3%+Added CB Dominique Rogers-CromartieAdded DL Calais CampbellReplaced FS Terrence Holt with Antrel Rolle-Lost OLB Calvin Pace |
Rush Defense: -1.2%+Added CB Dominique Rogers-CromartieAdded DL Calais Campbell-n/a |
Special Teams:-3.9%+Added Early Doucet to punt returns |
Summary: A below average team that rolls out practically the same unit as last season, the Cardinals miserable cap shape prevented them from adding much talent in free agency. If Campbell rebounds, Leinart realizes some of his potential and Hightower is an above average feature back, this team could compete. That’s not terribly likely. Still a good sight better than the Rams or 49ers. |
Saint Louis Rams: 6-102007 DVOA: -33.9% |
Passing Offense: -18.0%+Replaced Andy McCollum with Jacob BellAdded Keenan BurtonAdded John GrecoAdded Donnie Avery-n/a |
Rushing Offense: -19.6%+Replaced Andy McCollum with Jacob BellSteven Jackson: 25Richie Incognito: 25-n/a |
Pass Defense: 18.1%+Added Chris Long-Leonard Little, La'Roi Glover: 34 |
Rush Defense: 3.1%See above |
Special Teams: -4.3%Replaced Jeff Wilkins with Josh Brown |
Summary: The Rams are in a similar position with Orlando Pace as the Hawks are with Marcus Tubbs, except where Seattle only needs Tubbs to contribute as a second or third string rotational defensive tackle, the Rams are relying on Pace to start the season at left tackle. …! Without Pace, the Rams are a team with a few pronounced strengths (two members of the defensive line, running up the middle, Torry Holt) and a team’s worth of weaknesses (linebacker, secondary, pass rush, pass protection, receiver, special teams, 2nd string quarterback, depth at any position). I think a bounce back in team health, an improved offensive line, a return to respectability by Marc Bulger and 400 carries by Steven Jackson will keep Saint Louis from a second year of embarrassment, but just barely. |
San Francisco 49ers 3-132007 DVOA: -38.0% |
Passing Offense: -43.9%+Replaced LT Jonas Jennings with Joe Staley-n/a |
Rushing Offense: -11.1%+Added G Chilo Rachal-Added RB DeShaun FosterAdded OC Mike Martz |
Passing Defense: 20.8%+Added DB Reggie SmithManny Lawson: 24Patrick Willis: 23-Replaced Bryant Young with Kentwan BalmerReplaced Marques Douglas with Justin SmithWalt Harris: 34 |
Rush Defense: 1.3%See Above |
Special Teams: 4.1%Added Returner Josh Morgan |
Summary: A miserable team in the midst of a miserable offseason. Bryant Johnson is a mediocre wide receiver that benefitted from good surrounding talent and a strong scheme. Isaac Bruce will turn 36 November 10th. Presumed 3-4 end Justin Smith will turn 29 September 30th, is fresh off a 2 sack season and weighs less than Darryl Tapp. Yeah, that’s worth $45M/6 yrs, $20M guaranteed. Just a phenomenally stupid move. For much of 2007, the Niners were flirting with all-time ineptness. They’ve lost talent and added Mike Martz. Martz was so bad the Detroit Lions ran him out of depression town on a rail. On the plus side, I bet Patrick Willis racks up the tackles. |
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Arizona Cardinals Draft Overview
First Round Selection: Dominique Rogers-Cromartie
This pick is a bit vexing. In 2007, Arizona was miserable defending #1(26th) and #2(25th) receivers. This offseason, 2005 eighth overall pick Antrel Rolle was finally, mercifully, moved to free safety. That left Eric Green manning the #2 corner spot. The punditry conferred, decided the Buzzsaw must, absolutely must, draft a corner in the first round, phoned Rod Graves, he said “Ev” and it was done. That’s where the complications begin.
One of the major reasons Arizona played so poorly against primary and secondary receivers is that they lacked consistent pass rush. It’s one of those universal laws of football, given enough time, the player who knows where the ball is going will beat the guy who’s guessing. If a team could contain Darnell Dockett and pick up whatever mad scientist blitz Clancy Pendergast schemed, their QB could chuck it from a hammock. That’s eminently clear: From week 10 on, Dockett recorded just one sack. Opposing coordinators adjusted blocking schemes, doubling Dockett with a center or using offset I formations to align a fullback behind the 3 gap. Freed from his harassment, their offenses took off. The shoddy Cardinals D went from allowing a kinda lousy 21.7 points per game in weeks 1-9, to allowing an exploding oil derrick-like 28.1 in weeks 10-17. Aggravating this defensive deficiency, the cash strapped Cardinals lost their best blitzing linebacker, Calvin Pace, to free agency.
We don’t need confirmation that Eric Green sucks. Or that the Cardinals would benefit greatly from upgrading ASAP. But does drafting an unpolished, toolsy cornerback from Tennessee State really accomplish that? Cornerback is definitely a matchup position, and D2 isn’t known for its receiver talent. Put it like this, do you know who David Ball is? Exactly. This isn’t some harrowing story of struggle and redemption, either, Rogers didn’t do shit in high school and college scouts recruited him accordingly. So, when we talk about Rogers phenomenal man coverage skills, his mighty press coverage and general dominance, that’s dominance over a gaggle of receivers considerably worse than David Ball. Recently cut from the Bears’ practice squad, David Ball. All-time D2 touchdown leader, David Ball.
Rookie cornerbacks are known combustibles. The precision and complexity of route running in the NFL is a huge step up from all but the most pro-centric college offenses. Short of Champ Bailey, taking lumps your first few seasons is standard procedure for NFL corners. Rogers must transition from the speed and complexity of D2 football to the NFL. Presumably, as soon as week 1. That task might be less daunting could we assume Rogers dominated his competition at TSU, but I can find no record he did that. Combing through Tennessee State’s box scores, I noticed quite a few big passing days by opponents. Rogers can’t be blamed for his team’s ineptness, but you would expect, if nothing else, that he would limit the opposing #1 receiver. I limited my sample to TSU’s opponents who averaged more than 200 yards per game passing for the season (which, to put this into perspective, eliminated all but 7), defined their #1 receiver as, simply enough, their reception yardage leader among wide receivers and recorded how they performed against TSU. This is a pretty modest group, without a single thousand yard receiver. That group averaged 5 receptions for 76.6 yards per contest, including 3 100+ yard games. Bad team, bad passing defense, substandard competition and only anecdotal evidence of dominance; it’s not that I know Rogers will bust, only that it seems like a distinct possibility.
Best Pick: Early Doucet
This is a no-brainer for me, as I thought Doucet was among the safer skill position picks in the draft.
This Draft Could Turn Depending On: Tim Hightower
I cannot find tape or meaningful information on Hightower. He’s slow, that we can be pretty sure of. I do not devalue him for his less than vaunted alma mater; running back is a solitary position. Someone to watch in the preseason.
Final Grade: C+
Initially, I loved this draft. I bought into super-athlete DRC. No longer. For the second straight season, the Cards drafted a former can’t miss defensive line prospect. Both Calais Campbell and Alan Branch are giants among giants, 6076 and 6056 respectively, and both suffered sizable slides after proving to be inconsistent and ineffective football players. If I haven’t made it clear by now, I’m not a fan of picks whose potential inflates their stock, and whose play deflates it. Campbell, specifically, looks like he may have simply outgrown his speed. Doucet is a no-brainer in the third, but one wonders if a team with little depth and two injury racked starters should have put a greater premium on health. That’s hardly damning though. Chris Harrington is an interesting DE/OLB tweener that recalls the glory days of New England’s once dominant defense. A surprisingly high-upside pick I really like at 185. I don’t have much to add about Kenny Iwebama or Brandon Keith. On paper, the Cardinals could have the foundation of a dominant defense in a few years. By then, it’s very possible their offense will have eroded or skipped town. If Hightower is a real find, a feature back able to perform at a high level for 20+ carries a contest, the Cardinals could compete this year. If he’s not, and he likely isn’t, the Cardinals should, once again, be somewhere hovering around average.
. . .
I have a lot more to add about Seattle's division mates. In terms of total value, Seattle did not have the best draft. But in terms of total talent added through the draft and free agency, young talent, existing talent on roster, coaching stability, depth and cap fitness, the Seahawks stand as a sequoia among saplings. Tomorrow, the first edition of my projected NFC West standings for 2008.
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Acknowledging a struggle
So I'm curious. For many, many years my sports allegiance ran first and foremost to baseball, and the Seattle Mariners. I lived and died with baseball, and the thing I wanted more than anything in the sporting world was a World Series victory.
I've by no means given up on the Mariners as a franchise, I love baseball, and I'll never stop pulling for them. But over the last few years, watching a shrewd and resourceful front office like the Seahawks possess artfully construct a competitive team, I've really come to love and watch football with a much greater passion than I ever thought possible.
This isn't all about winning and making the playoffs, though I'll readily admit that that plays a part. But I'm so tired of the horrid steps and jumps backwards that the evil and charismatic Mr. Bavasi makes as a matter of course. With this Mariner season already likely on the skids, I find myself still watching and following the team, but already shifting a little interest over to football. I'm anticipating the 'Hawks so early this year....
I guess I'm just slowly shifting priorities. I'll never abandon either franchise, I'm not saying that at all. I'm just looking forward to the Seahawks so much more than the Mariners that it isn't really even a competition anymore. Is anybody else going through this transformation? Obviously we're all Seahawks fans (seattlesucks notwithstanding!), but I'm curious how passionately people follow one sport or the other, and how that might be different than 5 years ago. Do we have any other converts from die-hard baseball fans to revelers of the fusball?
Damn, I just can't wait to watch our defense this year....
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Saint Louis Rams Draft Overview
First Round Selection: Chris Long
What’s not to like? Long didn’t have the most dominant career at Virginia, but his senior season is hard to ignore. His 14 sacks, 19 tackles for a loss and 9 pass defenses including a pick are especially impressive on a defense without a ton of talent. Long aces Need, capable of playing end, situational tackle and linebacker on a team with needs at all three. He’s a heady player who loves football and is a perfect Fit in Jim Haslett’s aggressive, unpredictable and blitz happy defense. I might otherwise have some reservations about Long’s Value, I think Dorsey is the better talent, but Long has little Downside, and when you’re paying someone 9+ million a year, that matters. A great pick that made perfect sense for the Rams.
Best Value: Roy Schuening
Concerns about his athleticism accepted, the Rams found a starter ready guard with above average potential in the fifth. The value of that simply cannot be understated. I was high on Schuening from the start, and endorsed Seattle drafting him prior to them acquiring Mike Wahle. Rather than rephrase what I’ve already written:
Withholding Judgment On: Donnie Avery
The Rams needed a matchup problem to take some heat off of Torry Holt, and though Avery may forever play the slot, there’s nothing wrong with a slot receiver that can cause havoc on the third level. I always find it funny when the sports punditry gets up in arms about teams doing something counter to "conventional wisdom". Read: What they think. Avery has true football speed and will demand safety attention, every play.
On the flip side, he’s not much of a receiver. Beyond the speed, he’s easily covered, doesn’t box out well or run precise or deceptive routes. He’s a bit of a gimmick receiver, good at creating matchup problems but not stupendously effective. Avery’s selection makes a little more sense when coupled with the drafting of Keenan Burton. Burton has a pretty good shot of winning the starting #2 spot from Drew Bennett, and the two taken as a package, Burton and Avery that is, are nice combination of refinement and potential.
Overall: A
I thought this was a talent rich draft with the chance to change the fortunes of a franchise. The Rams need more than a single influx of young talent, but this was a good start and simply a great draft: A vital low downside pick at 2, great value throughout, a polished right tackle in the third on a team that needs starters at offensive tackle, complimentary wide receivers that give a threadbare unit some life and Schuening added to an already punishing interior offensive line. A lot of people have completely written the Rams off, but they have a lot of talent on roster. I don’t buy Marc Bulger’s premature decline and think he can bounce back. The defense needs help, but I loved the Adam Carriker pick last season and Long is another cornerstone player. They’re still thin, but were very unlucky with injuries in 2007. Actual contention might take more than a few breaks and favorable bounces, but the road back to .500 is in sight.
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San Francisco 49ers Draft Overview
First Round Selection: Kentwan Balmer
On the plus side, the Niners are finally putting resources into their defensive line after years of investing in flashy “playmakers”. On the downside, you have to wonder where Balmer fits in Mike Nolan’s Frankenstein defense. He’s built thin and long and needs to add weight to play nose or an effective end. End is likely his destination. The problem with Balmer is he’s really neither terribly high upside nor shallow downside. His career peak to this point is a second team All-ACC nod his senior season. The ACC is talent rich, but you’d like to see a first round pick with something more to show. And as I’ve previously pointed out:
Balmer’s breakout senior season had a lot of air in it. Balmer is a good in-shorts player, who looks real athletic, but is short on football skills and, presumably, determination. He needed to be taken by a top organization that could ensure him a lot of structure and force him into accountability, but that’s probably not the 49ers. Even then, I don’t know…presuming Nolan’s Monster is destined to one day become a 3-4, Balmer will play the inglorious role of offensive lineman mover. That’s a hard nosed position that records few counting stats and fewer money stats. One wants a tough guy with a pronounced mean streak. That’s just not Balmer.
Head Scratcher: Chilo Rachal
I should preface this by saying I’m not very high on Chilo Rachal. When I watched video of USC, Rachal seemed their least consistent and most mistake prone offensive linemen. Further, I’m never high on offensive linemen with questions about their pass blocking.
What makes Rachal a head scratcher, though, is that on a team with definite needs in the interior offensive line, Rachal isn’t really starter ready. Normally, on a team as far from contention as the Niners, I’d forgive taking a talented project pick, but the Niners are in a bit of a mutated win-now mode. Alex Smith and Mike Nolan are both playing for their jobs. And though contention is pretty unrealistic, some sign of improvement is very necessary.
If Rachal does start, woo-boy. He played on a stacked USC offensive line and was arguably the least accomplished of the 5. His talent, and by that I mean athleticism, pushed him into the second round, while two of his draft eligible teammates, Drew Radovich and Matt Spanos went undrafted. He’s slow off the snap, stiff in his hips and penalty prone. Scouts like his frame and explosive upper body strength, but his technique needs a snap or three on the practice squad. Unfortunately, putting your early second round pick on the practice squad isn’t really an option. Rachal could one day be a very good in-line run blocker and a fair pass blocker, which isn’t much value for a second round pick. One day.
Best Pick: Reggie Smith
Smith fits what the Niners want in a DB, a hard hitter, and is known to be good in coverage too. He was a standout at Oklahoma, starting 36 games in 3 seasons. His stock was depressed by marginal top end speed. He offers versatility as a utility DB, capable of playing both nickel and safety, is only 21 and has the foundation of skills and the will to be an above average starter at safety. Good value, good fit, low downside, good versatility and will contribute on special teams as a gunner and reserve return man.
Overall: D
A very poor draft for the 49ers; surprising, too, after an excellent draft in 2007. Balmer and Rachal are respectable athletes with few football skills. Cody Wallace is an interesting center prospect, very skilled, hard worker; a player I’d like more in another scheme, but good nonetheless. Josh Morgan is all athlete and zero football player. The Niners have to hope he can contribute as a return man before he’s arrested or kicked off the team. I like Larry Grant okay, and think he’ll provide a little pop on special teams. Given the state of the franchise, best available talent would have been wise watch words for every pick in the Niners draft. Ironically, I think they intended to do just that, but came up with this.
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Seahawks Draft: Round By Round Grades With Final Grade
Here we go, round by round grades. For each pick, I’ll list the players I saw as the best value available, with consideration for overall talent but also the premium of the position and the upgrade from existing talent for Seattle. As always, this is my opinion. I try to make it as informed and supported as I can, but this isn’t meant as gospel or an attempt to shout down disagreement.
28: Lawrence Jackson
Best Value: Kenny Phillips, Lawrence Jackson, Phillip Merling, Brian Brohm
It would have warmed the cockles of my heart for Seattle to draft Philips and be done with Brian Russell, but it’s clear Tim Ruskell drafts his defenses from the inside out. In his 4 drafts and 30 picks, Ruskell has only drafted two DBs. It’s not that I think he devalues the secondary, only that he values experience. Merling is an excellent athlete, but his résumé pales compared to Jackson’s. Given their comparative health, experience, character and level of competition, Jackson was definitely the safer pick.
Notes: Seattle traded their 25th pick for Dallas’ 28th, 163rd and 235th picks.
Grade: A
Defensive end is a premium position, and given Patrick Kerney’s age and Seattle’s defensive scheme, this pick satisfied my every criteria: Value, Need, Fit and Downside. Jackson is lot like Kerney, actually. Both aren’t considered top flight edge rushers, but both are non-stop, smart and have the size and strength to anchor against the run as well as rush the passer. Adding Jackson has fringe benefits, too. Darryl Tapp is the team’s foremost edge rusher, but comes with scheme disadvantages. Namely, he vacates outside containment with Freeney-like gusto. In a reserve/rotation role, Tapp is an excellent situational pass rusher and has headache inducing versatility playing the short zone in Fire Zone blitzes.
38: John Carlson
Best Value: Trevor Laws, DeSean Jackson, Brian Brohm
Carlson just misses the cut, mostly because tight ends as a rule have a limited period of effectiveness. I graded Carlson as a solid first round talent, though, so it’s debatable. Folks around here know my fondness for Laws' game, but Seattle found better value at DT in the 4th – not that we knew this then. I still can’t believe Jackson’s slide. Funny how groupthink pervades the NFL. I saw Jackson as a top 5 talent and think Philadelphia found an absolute steal in the mid-second round. It’ll be interesting to see how he functions in Andy Reid’s somewhat Holmgrenesque offense and wonder what could have been. Seattle didn’t see WR as a need and I don’t blame them. Brohm fell to Green Bay. The Packers loaded up on offense, though their defense is more in need of young talent.
Notes: Seattle traded their 86th pick to Baltimore to move up from 55.
Grade: A-
Certainly the most controversial pick, I don’t doubt Carlson’s ability, only if he was worth both a second and third round pick. That third round pick likely cost Seattle an offensive tackle. It could be argued that Carlson is the best tight end Mike Holmgren has ever coached. Odd, then, that we might finally see just how valuable the position is in his final season coaching. I might grade this pick lower, it’s hard to stomach the value lost in moving up, but with New Orleans eyeing Carlson at 40 and Craig Stevens off the board a pick before Seattle’s selection in the 3rd, missing Carlson could have meant trotting out Jeb Putzier and Will Heller in week 1. Though I don’t know that Ruskell knew Tennessee would take Stevens, I imagine he’s still close with Titans GM Mike Reinfeldt and had some sense how much they valued him. I started by giving this pick a C, but the more I think, the more I think Carlson will be a special player for Seattle. His route running is superb. He aces my criteria of Need, Fit and Downside, and though I’m not fond of trading picks, Carlson is likely the best tight end talent to enter the draft since Heath Miller. When one considers that, Carlson’s polish and ability to contribute immediately to a franchise thinking "win now", his relative value becomes apparent. It’s been a slow process coming around to this pick, but one I don’t think I’ll regret.
121: Red Bryant
Best Value: Red Bryant, Tashard Choice, Keenan Burton, Frank Okam
I was obviously very high on Bryant, listing him as my best value defensive tackle of the 3rd round – but not for every team. I’ll elaborate on that in a second. I fully believe that Tashard Choice will end up more valuable than the Cowboys’ first round pick, Felix Jones. Keenan Burton is (another) great example of how much more volatile mock drafts are then the real thing. Burton became a favorite value pick for bloggers the world over after more than one "expert" predicted he would fall as far as the 7th, but c’mon. He’s polished, played in the SEC and blew out the combine. Okam is a great talent that has concerns about his effort. Many organizations would prefer a miscreant to a loafer.
Grade: A+
Frank Hughes described Bryant as country. Read: Naïve. Bryant was a model of inconsistency at Texas A&M, easily neutralized against Texas, but drawing true triple teams against Oklahoma. Previewing Bryant I wrote:
Bryant and Atkins have something very much in common, great talent. Atkins is a project both because he exited college lax in his prep and play and because he lacked (lacks) great football skills. Bryant is a little farther along. Both could be starters, and damn good ones, by 2010.
163: Owen Schmitt
Best Value: Chauncey Washington, Barry Richardson, John Sullivan
It’ll be interesting to see what becomes of Washington. It shouldn’t be forgotten that it took injury and luck for Ryan Grant to finally start. Washington is six feet under the Jags depth chart and will have to do everything right in training camp, preseason and make an impact on special teams to even make the roster. Kinda stupid, really. Richardson was once considered a first round talent. I still don’t know why he fell so far. Sullivan is a fine center if you accept that’s all he’ll ever be.
Grade: C
That’s a prove-it-to-me "C". I don’t like picks whose hype trumps their accomplishments. I’d rather one that I know will contribute, not one with a cool nickname, good quote, good story and raucous nightlife. I think Schmitt’s got a shot, a shot to be real good, but I’m not convinced. And I certainly don’t see how fullback trumps offensive tackle, wide receiver, center or linebacker for upgrade over existing talent. It seems like Ruskell has been chasing a fullback forever. Leonard Weaver may not be the blocker Schmitt is, I don’t know not having seen much of Schmitt, but I’d imagine he’s a better rusher and receiver. For those who argue that it’s the fifth round and nabbing a starter at all is something, one, Schmitt’s a fullback, and, two, there’s no guarantee he’ll start. Nevertheless, despite my profuse critiques, I want Schmitt to succeed. I like the guy and his potential as a blocker definitely exceeds Weaver’s.
Pick 189: Tyler Schmitt
Best Value: Washington, Jonathan Hefney, Ali Highsmith
This would have been a hell of a time to grab depth at safety and linebacker.
Grade: B+
Anything great ever done was once heckled, and for a second I’ll impersonate the mob. Every team in college employs a long snapper of some kind. This summer, literally dozens will graduate and nearly every one would sell their siblings into slavery for a shot at the NFL. Schmitt might be the greatest long snapper ever born, with a mechanized arm and a laser guided sight in his ass, but he still isn’t that much more valuable than any one of those dozens who won’t require a draft pick. It’s inconceivable, as in outside the limits of my imagination, that Schmitt will do anything so extraordinary for Seattle’s special teams to merit this pick.
Back to me. In the NFL, serviceable talent at linebacker and safety can be signed through free agency. Those players are almost without exception better than the talent available in the 6th round. San Diego State had only 13 punt returns despite punting the ball 73 times. They’re punter isn’t considered a special talent and like most fringe 1-A teams, they’re special teams isn’t particularly stacked. Regardless of his position, Schmitt is a talent that simply would not be available outside of the draft. Every year, games are won and lost because of special teams play – and not just the flash. Sound punts, good holds, good directional kicking and clutch field goals. This pick is about stocking Seattle’s roster with top talent at every position. Last season, the DVOA difference between the league’s top special teams, the Bears (9.1%), and the league’s worst, the Colts (-6.1%), equaled the DVOA difference between the Cowboys rushing attack (5.3%) and the Seahawks (-9.9%). Chew on that. Remember, everyone derides the kicker, punter, long snapper, until they need him.
Pick 233: Justin Forsett
Best Value: Highsmith, Hefney, Kirk Barton
Highsmith signed with the Cardinals. Cuntishy buncha Buzzsaw mothe…
Grade: B+
I like Forsett. Some might think calling him a very late career Edgerrin James is a slight, but I disagree. James can play and Forsett retains a good bit more speed. It’ll be interesting to see what the pint-sized power back can do in the preseason. The simple fact that his game should translate elevates him above the Marquis Weeks and Reggie Bushes of the world. Rescued of regular duty, he might even see an uptick in speed.
Pick 235: Brandon Coutu
Best Value: See Above
Grade: B-
I maintain convinced that Coutu is not an improvement over Olindo Mare. But I understand insuring against a collapse. Collectively, Mare and Coutu gives Seattle a very good shot at a very good kicker. That’s nothing to scoff at. I just wish it didn’t cost a pick that could have been used elsewhere.
Final Grade: A
My initial grade was an "A-". I decided that I’d drop that a whole letter grade if Seattle failed to sign an offensive tackle. I think now that Seattle really just needs depth at tackle and that doesn’t require a draft pick. Now, if I were drafting, I would have found a developmental tackle somewhere. That’s not an appropriate way to evaluate a draft, though. The closest thing to a peer Walter Jones has is probably Willie Roaf. Roaf played at a very high level until he was 36. Should Jones plateau at his current ability, that would give Seattle 3 more seasons of stability at the blindside. Maybe by then Will Robinson will look more like a tackle than a tight end. Anyway, depth at tackle can be acquired through free agency, or, and this will sound absurd coming from me, Floyd Womack should he join the cause and hit the weight room. He’s only 29.
My final grade is an "A". My reasoning is really quite simple. Seattle was able to attain 3 first round talents, a high upside fullback, a can’t miss long snapper, a pro able running back and strengthen their kicking game. Lawrence Jackson was so good for so long he became a bit of a forgotten man at USC. I believe his intelligence and total package athleticism could propel him into the upper echelon of defensive ends in the NFL. Aaron Kampman/Jared Allen territory. Where another team might have seen defensive end as a non-need, with their starting ends combining for 21.5 sacks in 2007, Seattle correctly evaluated Kerney’s probability of decline and Tapp’s potential as a non-starter regular. In the second round Seattle drafted a surefire first round talent whose stock had been devalued for all the wrong reasons. Antonio Gates couldn’t have produced on Notre Dame’s miserable excuse for an offense. Carlson wasn’t just the best talent at tight end in this draft, he’s the most talented tight end to enter the NFL since Heath Miller. Holmgren never needed a top tight end to get production out of the position, but I’m excited to see what he can do now that he has one. Red Bryant might be wasted on almost any other team in the NFL. The gee-shucks kid from places small and dusty could have been a Bengal or, God forbid, Cowboy. Another wasted 4th round pick. But in Seattle, with a class bunch of guys, Bryant’s silly athleticism - a little greater than what Kentwan Balmer is fabled to possess - will be alloyed with a peerless strength and conditioning program and honed by great coaches and the good kind of peer pressure. Owen Schmitt has much to prove and somewhat suspect athleticism, but venerable work ethic and epic ferocity. I’m not sure Seattle needed him, but hope he proves me foolish for doubting. Tyler Schmitt might just be a long snapper, but repeat that to me when the Hawks are wracking up safeties. Justin Forsett will be around long after faster, more hyped backs have faded and Brandon Coutu could be everything you want in a kicker, cheap with a strong leg. Like last year, it’s not how I would have drafted, but then, it’s better.
21 comments | 2 recs
Assessing Bobby Engram's Value
Clare Farnsworth has substantiated what Frank Hughes originally reported, Bobby Engram is unhappy with his contract. Instead of worrying about his motivations, I thought I’d look into his impact on Seattle’s passing offense. Here’s my method, simple enough. In 2006, Engram contributed in 8 contests, including two playoff games, and missed 9 contests. From that 9, I removed all snaps helmed by Seneca Wallace leaving 4 ½ games. I also scratched week 15 as it was Engram’s first game back. The question is, how well did Seattle do in net yards per pass attempt in those 8 contests compared to their opponent’s typical NY/PA versus how well did they do in those 4 ½ contests in NY/PA attempt compared to their opponent’s typical NY/PA? Pretty simple, well let’s see.
With Bobby Engram
NY/PA: 5.88
Expected NY/PA: 5.89
Percentage: 100%
Without Bobby Engram
NY/PA: 6.41
Expected NY/PA: 6.16
Percentage: 104%
So the Seahawks passing attack actually improved slightly without Engram. Why is that? Well, it’s not an improvement enough to herald church bells, but it might be simply that Holmgren’s been squeezing value out of the slot before Engram ever signed. In 1999, Mike Pritchard averaged 14.4 yards per catch on 26 receptions. In his time in Green Bay, Holmgren found life in Derrick Mayes, Bill Schroeder and Don Beebe. Not to sound like a broken record, but it’s important not to credit the player for the system. There’s a reason Holmgren has consistently produced top passing attacks with but a handful of name wide receivers.
I like Bobby Engram. He does what is asked of him and does it well. I find it a touch disingenuous when athletes talk about money equaling respect, but were Engram a top receiver, I could understand his beef. As is, he’s a systems player, albeit a fine one, that’s 35, coming off a career high in receptions and locked into a contract that probably isn’t too far from his actual value. I want to have your back here Bobby, but I think $1.7 million is just going to have to do.
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Season Retro: Julian Peterson
Julian Peterson
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