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Seeing Is Believing: Red Bryant

I'm having all 4 wisdom teeth extracted tomorrow and won't be able to post for a couple days. While I'm recovering, I thought I'd share a link to archived footage of Texas A&M football. Bryant is #85, but because of the poor camera angle, the fact that he shifts around a bit, and that he played beside #95, Henry Smith, he can be a bit tough to track. Despite what you may have read elsewhere, Smith was A&M's primary nose tackle. Funny how when a player is very large, it's assumed he's a wide-bodied blocker stopper, but though Bryant certainly is strong enough to play the two gap, his quickness and agility promise great one-gap potential. See for yourself.

6 comments | 0 recs

Lofa Tatupu

I had my first drink, my first drunk, when I was 11. Maybe 12. My group of friends met with our female counterparts at one’s house less than a block from my own. I had never set a foot in the door nor known she lived there, being that it’s a small world/it’s a very large world, nearly all I’ll never see. We sat in the basement, shot the shit, unmolested by parents, each a different degree of latchkey kid.

Her high school aged sister had held a party two days prior. Tucked in the nook of a cluttered anteroom facing the backyard sat the pitiable remains of a keg. Warm, tapped, skunked and mostly foam. I won’t bore with the build up, but I volunteered – boastful, among the boys, in front of the girls, and ever stupid risk taking – to drink those dregs. It was enough for three of us to get lit and we tripped down to the volleyball game.

Despite my young start, I never embraced drink like many I knew. They carrying concealed flasks to first period, shorting their parents liquor supply; the such, but it’s been a part of my life now and again. 15, riding the bus with Berent to where the Mill Plain Wal-Mart now stands, paying Jim the Bum with change from my father’s dresser, drinking malt liquor in that rat wilderness of African Ivy, knee-high grass, bottles and strangled trees; known as Gizzard Boy for my willingness to mercy kill others’ wounded soldiers. Short of “Mr.” or “Captain”, that’s as close as I’ve ever come to a nickname.

It’s a fucked up childhood, but it’s my own. I never had a role model who drank. I didn’t drink to be cool or adult or for any reason more explainable or clear than any other hoodlum thing I did. It was there, I was there, it was something to do. But I’ve never driven while drunk or even buzzed.

Every other person I’ve ever known, excepting my wife, has. In high school and, well, post-high school it wasn’t just okay, it was a point of pride. Like an accomplishment or initiation. Like “man that was stupid, but…” or “a cop tailed me from the Blind Onion to Chkalov,” or “My parents would have killed me, so...” Like, we’ve all done it so don’t act so goddamn holier than thou. I’ve lost a few friends acting so goddamn holier than thou.

My life, my life to this point, has been wracked with faults and sin, but I will never hesitate to condemn the act of drinking and driving.

When it was reported that Lofa Tatupu was arrested for DUI, it was a gutshot. Embarrassing and hypocritical, sort of. I’ve done my damndest to stay aloof when it comes to the lives of professional athletes. Yeah, aloof, with all its negative connotations. I don’t know Tatupu, or Marvin Harrison, or Michael Vick and am careful not to confuse media savvy with character. Issuing a timely public apology tells me much about Tatupu’s, Tatupu’s agent’s and the Seahawks’ media savvy, but excuse me if I find it hard to find the man through the media.

Maybe one day I’ll meet Tatupu, we can share a beer, probably not of course, but a man can dream. Either way, I doubt I’ll ever know Lofa Tatupu. But when you’re a star, and kids idolize you, and in your bigness you have a disproportionate impact on our culture and our mores, you matter beyond the gridiron. In my life, I haven’t avoided drinking and driving because I’m a good man or I so respected DARE officer Bill, but because, brass tacks, drinking and driving has caused more suffering, injury and death than every serial killer who ever lived – times a thousand. No one cares when I say it, but maybe they will if you do.

Lofa Tatupu and the Seahawks organization can either distance themselves from this, take their lumps, whatever trifling lumps they be, or seize this moment to do something good. Spare me your contrition. Become a better man. Become a voice against drinking and driving. Talk to kids. You’re way cooler than you think. Bring the knowledge, the facts and sure it’ll be lost on most, but someone will listen, someone will care, and that person’s life or another’s may be saved. As is, Tatupu, you stand as just another example that it's not so bad to drink and drive, everyone does it, and if you're caught, no big deal. And that's deadly.

28 comments | 1 recs

Projected Standings: NFC West 2008

Seattle Seahawks 13-3

2007 DVOA: 11.7%

Passing Offense: 17.2%

+

Replaced Shaun Alexander with Julius Jones

Replaced Marcus Pollard with John Carlson

Replaced Chris Gray with Rob Sims

-

Lost DJ Hackett

Deion Branch recovering from ACL tear

Rushing Offense: -9.9%

+

Replaced Shaun Alexander with Julius Jones

Replaced Rob Sims with Mike Wahle

Replaced Chris Gray with Rob Sims

Replaced Marcus Pollard with John Carlson

-

n/a

Pass Defense: -0.2%

+

Added Lawrence Jackson

Added Red Bryant

Moved Darryl Tapp to situational duty

Year 3: Kelly Jennings

Darryl Tapp: 24

Hill’s late season development in coverage

-

Patrick Kerney: 31

Rocky Bernard: 29

Rush Defense: -12.1%

+

Added Lawrence Jackson

Added Red Bryant

Moved Darryl Tapp to situational duty

Mebane: 23

Hill: 26


-

n/a

+

Replaced Josh Brown with Olindo Mare on kickoffs

Replaced Boone Stutz (et al) with Tyler Schmitt

-

Replaced Josh Brown with Olindo Mare on field goals (maybe)

Summary: Anything short of 6-0 in division would be very disappointing.

Arizona Cardinals 9-7

2007 DVOA: -10.1%

Passing Offense: 6.6%

+

Replaced Kurt Warner with Matt Leinart (maybe)

Added WR Early Doucet

-

Lost WR Bryant Johnson

Rushing Offense:-11.3%

+

Added RB Tim Hightower

-


Edgerrin James: 30; 2,849 rushing attempts

Pass Defense: 10.3%

+

Added CB Dominique Rogers-Cromartie

Added DL Calais Campbell

Replaced FS Terrence Holt with Antrel Rolle

-

Lost OLB Calvin Pace

Rush Defense: -1.2%

+

Added CB Dominique Rogers-Cromartie

Added DL Calais Campbell

-

n/a

Special Teams:

-3.9%

+


Added Early Doucet to punt returns

Summary: A below average team that rolls out practically the same unit as last season, the Cardinals miserable cap shape prevented them from adding much talent in free agency. If Campbell rebounds, Leinart realizes some of his potential and Hightower is an above average feature back, this team could compete. That’s not terribly likely. Still a good sight better than the Rams or 49ers.

Saint Louis Rams: 6-10

2007 DVOA: -33.9%

Passing Offense: -18.0%

+

Replaced Andy McCollum with Jacob Bell

Added Keenan Burton

Added John Greco

Added Donnie Avery

-

n/a

Rushing Offense: -19.6%

+

Replaced Andy McCollum with Jacob Bell

Steven Jackson: 25

Richie Incognito: 25

-

n/a

Pass Defense: 18.1%

+

Added Chris Long

-

Leonard Little, La'Roi Glover: 34

Rush Defense: 3.1%

See above

Special Teams: -4.3%

Replaced Jeff Wilkins with Josh Brown

Summary: The Rams are in a similar position with Orlando Pace as the Hawks are with Marcus Tubbs, except where Seattle only needs Tubbs to contribute as a second or third string rotational defensive tackle, the Rams are relying on Pace to start the season at left tackle. …! Without Pace, the Rams are a team with a few pronounced strengths (two members of the defensive line, running up the middle, Torry Holt) and a team’s worth of weaknesses (linebacker, secondary, pass rush, pass protection, receiver, special teams, 2nd string quarterback, depth at any position). I think a bounce back in team health, an improved offensive line, a return to respectability by Marc Bulger and 400 carries by Steven Jackson will keep Saint Louis from a second year of embarrassment, but just barely.

San Francisco 49ers 3-13

2007 DVOA: -38.0%

Passing Offense: -43.9%

+

Replaced LT Jonas Jennings with Joe Staley

-

n/a

Rushing Offense: -11.1%

+

Added G Chilo Rachal

-

Added RB DeShaun Foster

Added OC Mike Martz

Passing Defense: 20.8%

+

Added DB Reggie Smith

Manny Lawson: 24

Patrick Willis: 23


-

Replaced Bryant Young with Kentwan Balmer

Replaced Marques Douglas with Justin Smith

Walt Harris: 34

Rush Defense: 1.3%

See Above

Special Teams: 4.1%

Added Returner Josh Morgan

Summary: A miserable team in the midst of a miserable offseason. Bryant Johnson is a mediocre wide receiver that benefitted from good surrounding talent and a strong scheme. Isaac Bruce will turn 36 November 10th. Presumed 3-4 end Justin Smith will turn 29 September 30th, is fresh off a 2 sack season and weighs less than Darryl Tapp. Yeah, that’s worth $45M/6 yrs, $20M guaranteed. Just a phenomenally stupid move. For much of 2007, the Niners were flirting with all-time ineptness. They’ve lost talent and added Mike Martz. Martz was so bad the Detroit Lions ran him out of depression town on a rail. On the plus side, I bet Patrick Willis racks up the tackles.

28 comments | 0 recs

Arizona Cardinals Draft Overview

First Round Selection: Dominique Rogers-Cromartie

This pick is a bit vexing. In 2007, Arizona was miserable defending #1(26th) and #2(25th) receivers. This offseason, 2005  eighth overall pick Antrel Rolle was finally, mercifully, moved to free safety. That left Eric Green manning the #2 corner spot. The punditry conferred, decided the Buzzsaw must, absolutely must, draft a corner in the first round, phoned Rod Graves, he said “Ev” and it was done. That’s where the complications begin.

One of the major reasons Arizona played so poorly against primary and secondary receivers is that they lacked consistent pass rush. It’s one of those universal laws of football, given enough time, the player who knows where the ball is going will beat the guy who’s guessing. If a team could contain Darnell Dockett and pick up whatever mad scientist blitz Clancy Pendergast schemed, their QB could chuck it from a hammock. That’s eminently clear: From week 10 on, Dockett recorded just one sack. Opposing coordinators adjusted blocking schemes, doubling Dockett with a center or using offset I formations to align a fullback behind the 3 gap. Freed from his harassment, their offenses took off. The shoddy Cardinals D went from allowing a kinda lousy 21.7 points per game in weeks 1-9, to allowing an exploding oil derrick-like 28.1 in weeks 10-17. Aggravating this defensive deficiency, the cash strapped Cardinals lost their best blitzing linebacker, Calvin Pace, to free agency.

We don’t need confirmation that Eric Green sucks. Or that the Cardinals would benefit greatly from upgrading ASAP. But does drafting an unpolished, toolsy cornerback from Tennessee State really accomplish that? Cornerback is definitely a matchup position, and D2 isn’t known for its receiver talent. Put it like this, do you know who David Ball is? Exactly. This isn’t some harrowing story of struggle and redemption, either, Rogers didn’t do shit in high school and college scouts recruited him accordingly. So, when we talk about Rogers phenomenal man coverage skills, his mighty press coverage and general dominance, that’s dominance over a gaggle of receivers considerably worse than David Ball. Recently cut from the Bears’ practice squad, David Ball. All-time D2 touchdown leader, David Ball.

Rookie cornerbacks are known combustibles. The precision and complexity of route running in the NFL is a huge step up from all but the most pro-centric college offenses. Short of Champ Bailey, taking lumps your first few seasons is standard procedure for NFL corners. Rogers must transition from the speed and complexity of D2 football to the NFL. Presumably, as soon as week 1. That task might be less daunting could we assume Rogers dominated his competition at TSU, but I can find no record he did that. Combing through Tennessee State’s box scores, I noticed quite a few big passing days by opponents. Rogers can’t be blamed for his team’s ineptness, but you would expect, if nothing else, that he would limit the opposing #1 receiver. I limited my sample to TSU’s opponents who averaged more than 200 yards per game passing for the season (which, to put this into perspective, eliminated all but 7), defined their #1 receiver as, simply enough, their reception yardage leader among wide receivers and recorded how they performed against TSU. This is a pretty modest group, without a single thousand yard receiver.  That group averaged 5 receptions for 76.6 yards per contest, including 3 100+ yard games. Bad team, bad passing defense, substandard competition and only anecdotal evidence of dominance; it’s not that I know Rogers will bust, only that it seems like a distinct possibility.

Best Pick: Early Doucet

This is a no-brainer for me, as I thought Doucet was among the safer skill position picks in the draft.

Doucet is a well-rounded player with a bevy of supports skills: blocking, rushing and return ability. Doucet doesn't do anything eye-popping, but his broad-base of skills, effectiveness against top competition and team-first mentality make him a low-downside, better than his numbers, above average contributor on a top club.

This Draft Could Turn Depending On: Tim Hightower

I cannot find tape or meaningful information on Hightower. He’s slow, that we can be pretty sure of. I do not devalue him for his less than vaunted alma mater; running back is a solitary position. Someone to watch in the preseason.

Final Grade: C+

Initially, I loved this draft. I bought into super-athlete DRC. No longer. For the second straight season, the Cards drafted a former can’t miss defensive line prospect. Both Calais Campbell and Alan Branch are giants among giants, 6076 and 6056 respectively, and both suffered sizable slides after proving to be inconsistent and ineffective football players. If I haven’t made it clear by now, I’m not a fan of picks whose potential inflates their stock, and whose play deflates it. Campbell, specifically, looks like he may have simply outgrown his speed. Doucet is a no-brainer in the third, but one wonders if a team with little depth and two injury racked starters should have put a greater premium on health. That’s hardly damning though. Chris Harrington is an interesting DE/OLB tweener that recalls the glory days of New England’s once dominant defense. A surprisingly high-upside pick I really like at 185. I don’t have much to add about Kenny Iwebama or Brandon Keith. On paper, the Cardinals could have the foundation of a dominant defense in a few years. By then, it’s very possible their offense will have eroded or skipped town. If Hightower is a real find, a feature back able to perform at a high level for 20+ carries a contest, the Cardinals could compete this year. If he’s not, and he likely isn’t, the Cardinals should, once again, be somewhere hovering around average.

. . .

I have a lot more to add about Seattle's division mates. In terms of total value, Seattle did not have the best draft. But in terms of total talent added through the draft and free agency, young talent, existing talent on roster, coaching stability, depth and cap fitness, the Seahawks stand as a sequoia among saplings. Tomorrow, the first edition of my projected NFC West standings for 2008.

16 comments | 0 recs

Acknowledging a struggle

So I'm curious.  For many, many years my sports allegiance ran first and foremost to baseball, and the Seattle Mariners.  I lived and died with baseball, and the thing I wanted more than anything in the sporting world was a World Series victory.

I've by no means given up on the Mariners as a franchise, I love baseball, and I'll never stop pulling for them.  But over the last few years, watching a shrewd and resourceful front office like the Seahawks possess artfully construct a competitive team, I've really come to love and watch football with a much greater passion than I ever thought possible.

This isn't all about winning and making the playoffs, though I'll readily admit that that plays a part.  But I'm so tired of the horrid steps and jumps backwards that the evil and charismatic Mr. Bavasi makes as a matter of course.  With this Mariner season already likely on the skids, I find myself still watching and following the team, but already shifting a little interest over to football.  I'm anticipating the 'Hawks so early this year....

I guess I'm just slowly shifting priorities.  I'll never abandon either franchise, I'm not saying that at all.  I'm just looking forward to the Seahawks so much more than the Mariners that it isn't really even a competition anymore.  Is anybody else going through this transformation?   Obviously we're all Seahawks fans (seattlesucks notwithstanding!), but I'm curious how passionately people follow one sport or the other, and how that might be different than 5 years ago.  Do we have any other converts from die-hard baseball fans to revelers of the fusball?

Damn, I just can't wait to watch our defense this year....

64 comments | 1 recs

Saint Louis Rams Draft Overview

First Round Selection: Chris Long

What’s not to like? Long didn’t have the most dominant career at Virginia, but his senior season is hard to ignore. His 14 sacks, 19 tackles for a loss and 9 pass defenses including a pick are especially impressive on a defense without a ton of talent. Long aces Need, capable of playing end, situational tackle and linebacker on a team with needs at all three. He’s a heady player who loves football and is a perfect Fit in Jim Haslett’s aggressive, unpredictable and blitz happy defense. I might otherwise have some reservations about Long’s Value, I think Dorsey is the better talent, but Long has little Downside, and when you’re paying someone 9+ million a year, that matters. A great pick that made perfect sense for the Rams.

Best Value: Roy Schuening

Concerns about his athleticism accepted, the Rams found a starter ready guard with above average potential in the fifth. The value of that simply cannot be understated. I was high on Schuening from the start, and endorsed Seattle drafting him prior to them acquiring Mike Wahle. Rather than rephrase what I’ve already written:

Schuening is a Tim Ruskell kind of guy. Schuening is tough: he played with walking pneumonia. Dedicated: he started 50 consecutive games. Versatile: playing tackle for much of his senior season. Athletic: he twice lettered in wrestling in high school. Schuening is also steady, stable and without character questions. He's a natural leader, something Seattle's soon to be very young offensive line could use. On paper, he doesn't have superstar potential, but like Lofa Tatupu, his awareness and dedication should not only allow him to play above his talent, but should improve the play of everyone around him.
I watched some video on the guy and here's what I saw: He's quick out of the blocks, plays low and with leverage, has good handfighting skills - especially, he can engage and chuck smaller, quicker defenders. He plays mean, that is, he takes the fight to the defender, not sitting back and awaiting engagement, and will continue to find defenders to block until the play is done. He also moves pretty well through space, but is unrefined as an actual pull blocker. He can lose a defender if he isn't able to knock him down with his initial surge and may have trouble with physical, high-motor types. He's a good size, and has a good, thick build.

Withholding Judgment On: Donnie Avery

The Rams needed a matchup problem to take some heat off of Torry Holt, and though Avery may forever play the slot, there’s nothing wrong with a slot receiver that can cause havoc on the third level. I always find it funny when the sports punditry gets up in arms about teams doing something counter to "conventional wisdom". Read: What they think. Avery has true football speed and will demand safety attention, every play.

On the flip side, he’s not much of a receiver. Beyond the speed, he’s easily covered, doesn’t box out well or run precise or deceptive routes. He’s a bit of a gimmick receiver, good at creating matchup problems but not stupendously effective. Avery’s selection makes a little more sense when coupled with the drafting of Keenan Burton. Burton has a pretty good shot of winning the starting #2 spot from Drew Bennett, and the two taken as a package, Burton and Avery that is, are nice combination of refinement and potential.

Overall: A

I thought this was a talent rich draft with the chance to change the fortunes of a franchise. The Rams need more than  a single influx of young talent, but this was a good start and simply a great draft: A vital low downside pick at 2, great value throughout, a polished right tackle in the third on a team that needs starters at offensive tackle, complimentary wide receivers that give a threadbare unit some life and Schuening added to an already punishing interior offensive line. A lot of people have completely written the Rams off, but they have a lot of talent on roster. I don’t buy Marc Bulger’s premature decline and think he can bounce back. The defense needs help, but I loved the Adam Carriker pick last season and Long is another cornerstone player. They’re still thin, but were very unlucky with injuries in 2007. Actual contention might take more than a few breaks and favorable bounces, but the road back to .500 is in sight.

11 comments | 0 recs

San Francisco 49ers Draft Overview

First Round Selection: Kentwan Balmer

On the plus side, the Niners are finally putting resources into their defensive line after years of investing in flashy “playmakers”. On the downside, you have to wonder where Balmer fits in Mike Nolan’s Frankenstein defense. He’s built thin and long and needs to add weight to play nose or an effective end. End is likely his destination. The problem with Balmer is he’s really neither terribly high upside nor shallow downside. His career peak to this point is a second team All-ACC nod his senior season. The ACC is talent rich, but you’d like to see a first round pick with something more to show. And as I’ve previously pointed out:

Balmer recorded 3.5 sacks, good, but only 4 hurries, bad. But, oh, oh, oh, it gets worse. All 3.5 of those sacks and 3 of his 4 hurries were against East Carolina, Maryland, NC State and Duke. Between those 4 teams the closest thing to an interior offensive line prospect is Andrew Crummey, who was out with a broken fibula. Their overall offensive quality as rated by FEI is 68, 40, 92 and 86, respectively. The corollary is that against top competition, Balmer did little. Not that he faced many top offenses, UNC's only other opponent to crack the top 50, South Florida, 36, rolled up the Tar Heels for 26 first downs, 194 rushing yards and 37 points.

Balmer’s breakout senior season had a lot of air in it. Balmer is a good in-shorts player, who looks real athletic, but is short on football skills and, presumably, determination. He needed to be taken by a top organization that could ensure him a lot of structure and force him into accountability, but that’s probably not the 49ers. Even then, I don’t know…presuming Nolan’s Monster is destined to one day become a 3-4, Balmer will play the inglorious role of offensive lineman mover. That’s a hard nosed position that records few counting stats and fewer money stats. One wants a tough guy with a pronounced mean streak. That’s just not Balmer.

Head Scratcher: Chilo Rachal

I should preface this by saying I’m not very high on Chilo Rachal. When I watched video of USC, Rachal seemed their least consistent and most mistake prone offensive linemen. Further, I’m never high on offensive linemen with questions about their pass blocking.

What makes Rachal a head scratcher, though, is that on a team with definite needs in the interior offensive line, Rachal isn’t really starter ready. Normally, on a team as far from contention as the Niners, I’d forgive taking a talented project pick, but the Niners are in a bit of a mutated win-now mode. Alex Smith and Mike Nolan are both playing for their jobs. And though contention is pretty unrealistic, some sign of improvement is very necessary.

If Rachal does start, woo-boy. He played on a stacked USC offensive line and was arguably the least accomplished of the 5. His talent, and by that I mean athleticism, pushed him into the second round, while two of his draft eligible teammates, Drew Radovich and Matt Spanos went undrafted. He’s slow off the snap, stiff in his hips and penalty prone. Scouts like his frame and explosive upper body strength, but his technique needs a snap or three on the practice squad. Unfortunately, putting your early second round pick on the practice squad isn’t really an option. Rachal could one day be a very good in-line run blocker and a fair pass blocker, which isn’t much value for a second round pick. One day.

Best Pick: Reggie Smith

Smith fits what the Niners want in a DB, a hard hitter, and is known to be good in coverage too. He was a standout at Oklahoma, starting 36 games in 3 seasons. His stock was depressed by marginal top end speed. He offers versatility as a utility DB, capable of playing both nickel and safety, is only 21 and has the foundation of skills and the will to be an above average starter at safety. Good value, good fit, low downside, good versatility and will contribute on special teams as a gunner and reserve return man.

Overall: D

A very poor draft for the 49ers; surprising, too, after an excellent draft in 2007. Balmer and Rachal are respectable athletes with few football skills. Cody Wallace is an interesting center prospect, very skilled, hard worker; a player I’d like more in another scheme, but good nonetheless. Josh Morgan is all athlete and zero football player. The Niners have to hope he can contribute as a return man before he’s arrested or kicked off the team. I like Larry Grant okay, and think he’ll provide a little pop on special teams. Given the state of the franchise, best available talent would have been wise watch words for every pick in the Niners draft. Ironically, I think they intended to do just that, but came up with this.

1 comment | 1 recs

Seahawks Draft: Round By Round Grades With Final Grade

Here we go, round by round grades. For each pick, I’ll list the players I saw as the best value available, with consideration for overall talent but also the premium of the position and the upgrade from existing talent for Seattle. As always, this is my opinion. I try to make it as informed and supported as I can, but this isn’t meant as gospel or an attempt to shout down disagreement.

28: Lawrence Jackson

Best Value: Kenny Phillips, Lawrence Jackson, Phillip Merling, Brian Brohm

It would have warmed the cockles of my heart for Seattle to draft Philips and be done with Brian Russell, but it’s clear Tim Ruskell drafts his defenses from the inside out. In his 4 drafts and 30 picks, Ruskell has only drafted two DBs. It’s not that I think he devalues the secondary, only that he values experience. Merling is an excellent athlete, but his résumé pales compared to Jackson’s. Given their comparative health, experience, character and level of competition, Jackson was definitely the safer pick.

Notes: Seattle traded their 25th pick for Dallas’ 28th, 163rd and 235th picks.

Grade: A

Defensive end is a premium position, and given Patrick Kerney’s age and Seattle’s defensive scheme, this pick satisfied my every criteria: Value, Need, Fit and Downside. Jackson is lot like Kerney, actually. Both aren’t considered top flight edge rushers, but both are non-stop, smart and have the size and strength to anchor against the run as well as rush the passer. Adding Jackson has fringe benefits, too. Darryl Tapp is the team’s foremost edge rusher, but comes with scheme disadvantages. Namely, he vacates outside containment with Freeney-like gusto. In a reserve/rotation role, Tapp is an excellent situational pass rusher and has headache inducing versatility playing the short zone in Fire Zone blitzes.

38: John Carlson

Best Value: Trevor Laws, DeSean Jackson, Brian Brohm

Carlson just misses the cut, mostly because tight ends as a rule have a limited period of effectiveness. I graded Carlson as a solid first round talent, though, so it’s debatable. Folks around here know my fondness for Laws' game, but Seattle found better value at DT in the 4th – not that we knew this then. I still can’t believe Jackson’s slide. Funny how groupthink pervades the NFL. I saw Jackson as a top 5 talent and think Philadelphia found an absolute steal in the mid-second round. It’ll be interesting to see how he functions in Andy Reid’s somewhat Holmgrenesque offense and wonder what could have been. Seattle didn’t see WR as a need and I don’t blame them. Brohm fell to Green Bay. The Packers loaded up on offense, though their defense is more in need of young talent.

Notes: Seattle traded their 86th pick to Baltimore to move up from 55.

Grade: A-

Certainly the most controversial pick, I don’t doubt Carlson’s ability, only if he was worth both a second and third round pick. That third round pick likely cost Seattle an offensive tackle. It could be argued that Carlson is the best tight end Mike Holmgren has ever coached. Odd, then, that we might finally see just how valuable the position is in his final season coaching. I might grade this pick lower, it’s hard to stomach the value lost in moving up, but with New Orleans eyeing Carlson at 40 and Craig Stevens off the board a pick before Seattle’s selection in the 3rd, missing Carlson could have meant trotting out Jeb Putzier and Will Heller in week 1. Though I don’t know that Ruskell knew Tennessee would take Stevens, I imagine he’s still close with Titans GM Mike Reinfeldt and had some sense how much they valued him. I started by giving this pick a C, but the more I think, the more I think Carlson will be a special player for Seattle. His route running is superb. He aces my criteria of Need, Fit and Downside, and though I’m not fond of trading picks, Carlson is likely the best tight end talent to enter the draft since Heath Miller. When one considers that, Carlson’s polish and ability to contribute immediately to a franchise thinking "win now", his relative value becomes apparent. It’s been a slow process coming around to this pick, but one I don’t think I’ll regret.

121: Red Bryant

Best Value: Red Bryant, Tashard Choice, Keenan Burton, Frank Okam

I was obviously very high on Bryant, listing him as my best value defensive tackle of the 3rd round – but not for every team. I’ll elaborate on that in a second. I fully believe that Tashard Choice will end up more valuable than the Cowboys’ first round pick, Felix Jones. Keenan Burton is (another) great example of how much more volatile mock drafts are then the real thing. Burton became a favorite value pick for bloggers the world over after more than one "expert" predicted he would fall as far as the 7th, but c’mon. He’s polished, played in the SEC and blew out the combine. Okam is a great talent that has concerns about his effort. Many organizations would prefer a miscreant to a loafer.

Grade: A+

Frank Hughes described Bryant as country. Read: Naïve. Bryant was a model of inconsistency at Texas A&M, easily neutralized against Texas, but drawing true triple teams against Oklahoma. Previewing Bryant I wrote:

Bryant looks like a first round talent, but plays like an NDFA. Because of this, Bryant wins the duel distinctions of the Memorial Baraka Atkins Project Pick and the Someone's Gonna Need To Kick This Kid In The Ass awards.

Bryant and Atkins have something very much in common, great talent. Atkins is a project both because he exited college lax in his prep and play and because he lacked (lacks) great football skills. Bryant is a little farther along. Both could be starters, and damn good ones, by 2010.

163: Owen Schmitt

Best Value: Chauncey Washington, Barry Richardson, John Sullivan

It’ll be interesting to see what becomes of Washington. It shouldn’t be forgotten that it took injury and luck for Ryan Grant to finally start. Washington is six feet under the Jags depth chart and will have to do everything right in training camp, preseason and make an impact on special teams to even make the roster. Kinda stupid, really. Richardson was once considered a first round talent. I still don’t know why he fell so far. Sullivan is a fine center if you accept that’s all he’ll ever be.

Grade: C

That’s a prove-it-to-me "C". I don’t like picks whose hype trumps their accomplishments. I’d rather one that I know will contribute, not one with a cool nickname, good quote, good story and raucous nightlife. I think Schmitt’s got a shot, a shot to be real good, but I’m not convinced. And I certainly don’t see how fullback trumps offensive tackle, wide receiver, center or linebacker for upgrade over existing talent. It seems like Ruskell has been chasing a fullback forever. Leonard Weaver may not be the blocker Schmitt is, I don’t know not having seen much of Schmitt, but I’d imagine he’s a better rusher and receiver. For those who argue that it’s the fifth round and nabbing a starter at all is something, one, Schmitt’s a fullback, and, two, there’s no guarantee he’ll start. Nevertheless, despite my profuse critiques, I want Schmitt to succeed. I like the guy and his potential as a blocker definitely exceeds Weaver’s.

Pick 189: Tyler Schmitt

Best Value: Washington, Jonathan Hefney, Ali Highsmith

This would have been a hell of a time to grab depth at safety and linebacker.

Grade: B+

Anything great ever done was once heckled, and for a second I’ll impersonate the mob. Every team in college employs a long snapper of some kind. This summer, literally dozens will graduate and nearly every one would sell their siblings into slavery for a shot at the NFL. Schmitt might be the greatest long snapper ever born, with a mechanized arm and a laser guided sight in his ass, but he still isn’t that much more valuable than any one of those dozens who won’t require a draft pick. It’s inconceivable, as in outside the limits of my imagination, that Schmitt will do anything so extraordinary for Seattle’s special teams to merit this pick.

Back to me. In the NFL, serviceable talent at linebacker and safety can be signed through free agency. Those players are almost without exception better than the talent available in the 6th round. San Diego State had only 13 punt returns despite punting the ball 73 times. They’re punter isn’t considered a special talent and like most fringe 1-A teams, they’re special teams isn’t particularly stacked. Regardless of his position, Schmitt is a talent that simply would not be available outside of the draft. Every year, games are won and lost because of special teams play – and not just the flash. Sound punts, good holds, good directional kicking and clutch field goals. This pick is about stocking Seattle’s roster with top talent at every position. Last season, the DVOA difference between the league’s top special teams, the Bears (9.1%), and the league’s worst, the Colts (-6.1%), equaled the DVOA difference between the Cowboys rushing attack (5.3%) and the Seahawks (-9.9%). Chew on that. Remember, everyone derides the kicker, punter, long snapper, until they need him.

Pick 233: Justin Forsett

Best Value: Highsmith, Hefney, Kirk Barton

Highsmith signed with the Cardinals. Cuntishy buncha Buzzsaw mothe…

Grade: B+

I like Forsett. Some might think calling him a very late career Edgerrin James is a slight, but I disagree. James can play and Forsett retains a good bit more speed. It’ll be interesting to see what the pint-sized power back can do in the preseason. The simple fact that his game should translate elevates him above the Marquis Weeks and Reggie Bushes of the world. Rescued of regular duty, he might even see an uptick in speed.

Pick 235: Brandon Coutu

Best Value: See Above

Grade: B-

I maintain convinced that Coutu is not an improvement over Olindo Mare. But I understand insuring against a collapse. Collectively, Mare and Coutu gives Seattle a very good shot at a very good kicker. That’s nothing to scoff at. I just wish it didn’t cost a pick that could have been used elsewhere.

Final Grade: A

My initial grade was an "A-". I decided that I’d drop that a whole letter grade if Seattle failed to sign an offensive tackle. I think now that Seattle really just needs depth at tackle and that doesn’t require a draft pick. Now, if I were drafting, I would have found a developmental tackle somewhere. That’s not an appropriate way to evaluate a draft, though. The closest thing to a peer Walter Jones has is probably Willie Roaf. Roaf played at a very high level until he was 36. Should Jones plateau at his current ability, that would give Seattle 3 more seasons of stability at the blindside. Maybe by then Will Robinson will look more like a tackle than a tight end. Anyway, depth at tackle can be acquired through free agency, or, and this will sound absurd coming from me, Floyd Womack should he join the cause and hit the weight room. He’s only 29.

My final grade is an "A". My reasoning is really quite simple. Seattle was able to attain 3 first round talents, a high upside fullback, a can’t miss long snapper, a pro able running back and strengthen their kicking game. Lawrence Jackson was so good for so long he became a bit of a forgotten man at USC. I believe his intelligence and total package athleticism could propel him into the upper echelon of defensive ends in the NFL. Aaron Kampman/Jared Allen territory. Where another team might have seen defensive end as a non-need, with their starting ends combining for 21.5 sacks in 2007, Seattle correctly evaluated Kerney’s probability of decline and Tapp’s potential as a non-starter regular. In the second round Seattle drafted a surefire first round talent whose stock had been devalued for all the wrong reasons. Antonio Gates couldn’t have produced on Notre Dame’s miserable excuse for an offense. Carlson wasn’t just the best talent at tight end in this draft, he’s the most talented tight end to enter the NFL since Heath Miller. Holmgren never needed a top tight end to get production out of the position, but I’m excited to see what he can do now that he has one. Red Bryant might be wasted on almost any other team in the NFL. The gee-shucks kid from places small and dusty could have been a Bengal or, God forbid, Cowboy. Another wasted 4th round pick. But in Seattle, with a class bunch of guys, Bryant’s silly athleticism - a little greater than what Kentwan Balmer is fabled to possess - will be alloyed with a peerless strength and conditioning program and honed by great coaches and the good kind of peer pressure. Owen Schmitt has much to prove and somewhat suspect athleticism, but venerable work ethic and epic ferocity. I’m not sure Seattle needed him, but hope he proves me foolish for doubting. Tyler Schmitt might just be a long snapper, but repeat that to me when the Hawks are wracking up safeties. Justin Forsett will be around long after faster, more hyped backs have faded and Brandon Coutu could be everything you want in a kicker, cheap with a strong leg. Like last year, it’s not how I would have drafted, but then, it’s better.

21 comments | 2 recs

Assessing Bobby Engram's Value

Clare Farnsworth has substantiated what Frank Hughes originally reported, Bobby Engram is unhappy with his contract. Instead of worrying about his motivations, I thought I’d look into his impact on Seattle’s passing offense. Here’s my method, simple enough. In 2006, Engram contributed in 8 contests, including two playoff games, and missed 9 contests. From that 9, I removed all snaps helmed by Seneca Wallace leaving 4 ½ games. I also scratched week 15 as it was Engram’s first game back. The question is, how well did Seattle do in net yards per pass attempt in those 8 contests compared to their opponent’s typical NY/PA versus how well did they do in those 4 ½ contests in NY/PA attempt compared to their opponent’s typical NY/PA? Pretty simple, well let’s see.

With Bobby Engram

NY/PA: 5.88

Expected NY/PA: 5.89

Percentage: 100%

Without Bobby Engram

NY/PA: 6.41

Expected NY/PA: 6.16

Percentage: 104%

So the Seahawks passing attack actually improved slightly without Engram. Why is that? Well, it’s not an improvement enough to herald church bells, but it might be simply that Holmgren’s been squeezing value out of the slot before Engram ever signed. In 1999, Mike Pritchard averaged 14.4 yards per catch on 26 receptions. In his time in Green Bay, Holmgren found life in Derrick Mayes, Bill Schroeder and Don Beebe. Not to sound like a broken record, but it’s important not to credit the player for the system. There’s a reason Holmgren has consistently produced top passing attacks with but a handful of name wide receivers.

I like Bobby Engram. He does what is asked of him and does it well. I find it a touch disingenuous when athletes talk about money equaling respect, but were Engram a top receiver, I could understand his beef. As is, he’s a systems player, albeit a fine one, that’s 35, coming off a career high in receptions and locked into a contract that probably isn’t too far from his actual value. I want to have your back here Bobby, but I think $1.7 million is just going to have to do.

11 comments | 0 recs

Season Retro: Julian Peterson

Julian Peterson

Stats

Highlights

Lowlights

Outlook

Stats*

TBA

*Includes all games minus Week 10, Divisional Round and the second half of Week 3 and the first half of week 1.

Highlights

9/9/07

The most interesting sequence of the first half came on Tampa Bay's final two drives. In both of them Seattle employed a 3-3 nickel formation where Julian Peterson can become a fourth down lineman effectively turning the play into a 4-2. That's the crucial aspect of the 3-3, that Peterson has options. On all six plays Peterson eventually put his hand down and rushed the passer, but he mixed in a lot of stances and motion to disrupt the left tackle. In the first set, the more pertinent one since the other involved Cadillac Williams running out the clock on some questionable play calls, Patrick Kerney played the right end position, but became a de facto tackle once Peterson put his hand down. Couple this with Bernard at left tackle and Tapp manning the left defensive end and the Bucs have to contend with four really devastating pass rushers and two ends (Tapp, Peterson) that are skilled in short zone coverage. The shear number of options this formation engenders must have made line calling a tremendous headache for John Wade.

In the first play under this formation, Peterson shows just awesome recognition, finally committing to a three point stance just as Garcia is about to snap. Excellent pre-snap recognition by Muscley Arm. After the snap Bernard gets great pressure up the gut, Garcia fades to his left and is met by a charging Peterson on the edge rush: Sack. The next play starts almost the same way, but Peterson grandstands a little less and aligns himself as a pass rusher a little earlier. Instead of a sack, Garcia connects to Michael Pittman for a six yard dump off. Peterson once again is deadly around the edge, but instead of Bernard's pressure coming up the gut, he's redirected around to the offensive left side. The resulting gap to the right leaves Garcia a place to step up and a throwing lane to pass through. What's really interesting beyond the simple coolness of this formation is that these two plays were nearly identical but one resulted in a sack and one resulted in a completion. Peterson gets similar edge rush on both plays, but in one Bernard collapses the pocket's head pin and the other he's shuffled to the left. Bernard's dominance on the first play caused the Bucs to smartly assign another man to him and the resulting Forced Double Team actually benefits the Bucs. Just an exciting display of strategy, counter-strategy and how one player who is credited with recording no conventional stats on either play (Bernard) made all the difference between a sack and a completion.

10/21/07

3-3 Nickel again, this time Peterson is playing down lineman. First play, Saint Louis's next drive. Peterson has the pass rush ability of an elite defensive end, but he's not and that's an important distinction and here's why. The Rams are pinned within their twenty, this is screen and draw country. The Rams call the former, Peterson edge rushes, but Alex Barron retreats, never putting a block on him. It's a classic suck-up, get the line deep and then dish the ball behind them screen. Peterson reads this, breaks his rush and pulls into a short zone directly in front of Brian Leonard. It all happens so fast, a split second read an' react, and Bulger not wanting to give away the play never looks until he's thrown the ball right to Peterson. Interception, the Hawks score two plays later, Julian Peterson rocks the funk right from my socks.

1/5/08

Two plays later Peterson gives Fabini his paralysis stare, then runs untouched to Collins for a sack.

The very first play of the [4th] quarter, touchdown pass to Antwan Randle El, involved some pretty cool under the radar play by Julian Peterson. At the snap, he gets a real nice push on Chris Samuels, jumps, and by jumping blocks Collins’ passing lane, comes back to earth, pushes Samuels back again and then gets around the Pro Bowl tackle and provides pressure. Peterson’s value added as a nickel defensive end is another reason that he’s among Seattle’s least replaceable players.

Lowlights

9/16/07

I hate questioning the character of a team, but Seattle made some obvious mental mistakes. Both Sean Locklear and Rob Sims simply gave up on blocks after Matt Hasselbeck couldn't find an open receiver. That's unacceptable. Sims' turned into a sack, Locklear's a throw away. Couple that with blown assignments by Julian Peterson and Marcus Trufant and fans have a right to be pissed with the team's showing. Both blown assignments turned into touchdowns, Peterson biting on a play-fake and leaving Leonard Pope wide open for a score.

11/18.07

Second play of the drive, following a 7 yard reception by Greg Olsen, Hawks in a base package. Benson starts hard left on a run that looks to be off tackle. The Hawks surge right, stuffing the rush lane. Sounds good, right? Here's the problem, a cutback lane as large as an elephant's ass has opened to the right. Benson is not quick out of his cuts, and had the Seahawks backside containment, it's unlikely this rush would have gone more than 5 yards. Unfortunately, Peterson, instead of staying put, tracks motion man Muhsin Muhammad dangerously close to the middle, then attempts to split the line for the money tackle for a loss, gets held in what might be called a bracket block (that is, the guard put an arm on Pete's back and another on his sternum and held him very briefly) and is out of the play. Bad move. Benson cuts back right, behind the Hawks line and now has but two defenders to beat. Tru is blocked down by Bernard Berrian (great block) leaving only Russell in his way to the endzone. This, presumably, is why you have a free safety. The play has broken down, the opposing rusher is free with acreage ahead of him, it's time to do your best Bob Sanders and fill. Russell has, somehow, tracked the run left too, perhaps looking for one of his patented after the fact pile on tackles. That's his first mistake, but it's recoverable. Then, instead of simply putting his body between Benson and the endzone, he overshoots towards the line. Benson doesn't have much more to do than run right at Tru and into the endzone. Peterson blows his assignment, but Russell's pursuit angle and Berrian's downfield blocking make it a score.

11/25/07

Peterson had an abnormally quiet half. The first time I really noticed him was when he was chasing Bruce after an 11 yard completion. Not many linebackers can match against Bruce, but the play still nets Peterson a blown coverage.

Outlook

Peterson turns 30 July 28th. That might seem troubling, but he possesses the profile of a late bloomer, or, minimum, a graceful decliner. Though Peterson wasn’t always at the center of the action, he is undoubtedly among the least replaceable talents on the Seahawks’ roster. His versatility and ability to provide top-tier edge rush in nickel formations powers Seattle’s venerable 3-3. It’s entirely reasonable to count on Peterson to produce at a similar level in 2008 as he did in 2006 and 2007, but it’s not impossible that as the exceptionally quick and athletic linebacker enters his peak power years, he might actually step up another level - From superstar to legend.

7 comments | 0 recs

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